Wednesday, July 30, 2008

5 Senate Races to Watch Out For

There are several Senate races in November that will determine how healthy the Democratic majority in Congress will be starting next year. Most of these races are currently leaning Democrat and considering that they are in traditionally Republican states show the trouble the Republicans are in come November. Let's take them one by one:

1) Alaska. This should be a no-brainer for the Democrats as their Senator, Ted Stevens, was indicted yesterday on felony corruption charges. He has also vowed not to bow out of the race basically handing the Democrats his seat. Considering the fact he is running against the popular mayor of Anchorage Mark Begich, this race seems to be the surest bet for the Democrats in November. Today's poll: Begich 50%; Stevens 45%, but expect Stevens' number to go way down as the news of indictment against him sinks into the minds of Alaskans.

2) New Hampshire. The incumbent Republican (previously very popular) John Sununu is trailing his Democratic challenger Gene Shaheen 11 points (52-41%). Sununu represents the old New Hampshire, but the state has becoming a suburb of Boston in a way and has started leaning Democrat. This coupled with a horrible reputation the Republicans have right now bides well for the Democratic chances to pick up this seat.

3) Virginia (my personal favorite). The polls shows that the battle between the governors, Mark Warner (D) and Jim Gilmore (R) will be a devastating Republican defeat come November: Warner 59%, Gilmore 33%. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said of the race: "This is over even before it began. This is an absolute disaster for the Republicans." The state will also be interesting to watch in the presidential election especially if Obama picks Tim Kaine, current governor to be his VP or Jim Webb, the state's current Senator.

4) New Mexico. This is a battle between two Congressmen, Tom Udall (D) and Steve Pearce. Currently, Udall is leading Pearce by 28 points in the polls. The Republicans had a more moderate candidate running in the primaries, but her loss to Pearce has almost guaranteed a victory for the Democrats.

5) Colorado. Congressman Mark Udall is a Democrat and is running ahead of Republican Mark Schaffer 7 points (48-41%). Colorado has moved towards the Democrats in the past few years, electing a Democratic governor, a Senator, and giving a Congressional district to the Democrats. In a year such as this, when the Republican brand name is about as popular as Kevin Federline, this race seems like another promising chance for the Democrats.

Currently, the Democrats have 51 seats and to be filibuster-proof after the next election they need to have 60, so the magical number is 9. This is going to be hard to reach, but not impossible. There are several other states where the Democrats can pick up a seat: in Texas, the race seems shockingly close as the incumbent John Cornyn is only 4 points ahead of his Democratic challenger. Susan Collins (Maine), Gordon Smith (Oregon), Elizabeth Dole (N. Carolina), and Norm Coleman (Minnesota. Here Al Franken has ran a terrible campaign, however) are only favored by small margins over their opponents.

But even without a filibuster proof Senate, the Democrats will be given the reins of power come November (including the White House, hopefully). It was about time!

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