I know polls can be deceiving and sometimes outright wrong, but what I just heard on the NPR certainly gives me hope for November. The new Pew poll has Obama up by 7 percentage points, 49 to 42 %, the first time the Pew poll (considered one of the most reliable) has Obama in a statistically significant lead. What is more significant than this national poll, given the fact that we don't have national but electoral elections, are the new polls by the Quinnipiac University Poll from Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These give Obama a widening lead in all of the battleground states: keep in mind, all of the polls were taken after the first Presidential debate and McCain's disastrous decision to "suspend" his campaign during the bailout crisis.
The Quinnipiac University Poll released October 1st, finds Obama with an 8 point lead in Ohio and yes, Florida of all places. Even more significantly, the poll shows Obama with a whopping 15 point lead in Pennsylvania.
The reason behind Obama's widening lead is not only the economic crisis, but the public's increasing disgust with Palin. The same poll found that 51% say that Palin is not qualified to be vice president. As for Obama's performance in the first debate, 72% of those polled find it to have been "excellent" compared to 59% of those who say the same for McCain.
Again, a word of caution: polls are tricky things. They are shifty and can be quite deceiving. But the fact that we are only five weeks away from the election day gives me great confidence that these polls truly do reflect a tremendous momentum shift in the favor of Obama.
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Unless you truly want to see the dismantling of the American state, you are scared shitless about the prospect of a Palin presidency (McCain's advanced age and health are not encouraging in this regard.
Its not outside of the realm of possibility that Biden will look almost as dumb as Palin tommorrow night, and if that happens, things will tighten up again.
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