As Bosnia-Herzegovina plunges into yet another constitutional crisis, and the threads of the very state seem to be unraveling, I have been thinking a lot about pragmatism. Americans and Europeans are once again secluded in a Sarajevo military base with all the political bigshots, trying to come up with a solution. I have been toying with some ideas that I wanted to flesh out. Some of them are provocative (for the domestic audience), but I wanted to think of radical solutions to these problems, and stir up some discussion. My main argument is that the country needs a radical pragmatic solution and that the words of the eternally pragmatic Abraham Lincoln are instructive in how to achieve this.
For those not familiar with the current political system of the country, let me give you a brief background.
BACKGROUND (*For those familiar with the region feel free to scroll down to the next paragraph).
Dayton Bosnia is a country with a constitution "worthy of a zen master" to paraphrase an anthropologist of the region. While enjoying some symbolic attributes of an independent, sovereign state, its internal sovereignty is non-existent. 49% of its territory is taken up by the Serb entity (Republika Srpska) and 51% by the Federation of Croats and Muslims. Each entity has a two-tiered parliament, prime ministers with entire cabinets, and each entity has the right to block any decision of the weak central government. The latter is mostly represented by the three-member presidency (Serb, Croat, Bosniak) whose constitutional powers are so minimal that makes the entire idea of a Bosnian state laughable; and the Council of Minister, but whose powers, are again, are limited and vulnerable to veto. The power is further devolved to the cantons (10 of them) and canton governments have jurisdiction over areas as important as educational policy. Then finally, the power devolution ends at the municipal level with the mayor and the city council. In short, Bosnia has 14 parliaments! The overlapping jurisdictions of power are so complex that the country needs a zen master to interpret the laws.
STALEMATE OF IDEALS
The Dayton Peace Agreement--which is the constitution of the country (oh yes, and we do not own a copy of it since the original one is in Paris!)--has cemented the hold of nationalist powers in each entity and each canton, and the result is a perpetual political paralysis. Besides making it impossible to ever enter into the EU, the structure reflects the stalemate of ideals which is the heart of the problem and which the war never resolved.
In short, Bosnia is an unwieldy conglomeration of (still) warring ideals.
The Serbs believe that the reason they spilled their blood was to create an exclusively Serb entity that can buffer them from any Muslim-Croat domination or worse, a repeat of the WWII-era massacres. They argue to the point of exhaustion that they never voted for Bosnia to succeed from Yugoslavia and never agreed to live in a single state with the other two people. This ideal is rooted in the early mid-to-late 19th century nationalist idea of peasant democracy, but is mixed in with the fears of genocide that came out of the WWII experience, and has then been filtered through the recent war which is seen as a delayed Serbian response to WWII.
The Croats, who make up the tiniest percentage of the population (17% or so), feel completely marginalized in the Federation. They point out that the constitution gave the Serbs and the Muslims their own entities while relegating them to the permanent minority status. As a constituent people they want their own entity and until then, they are holding onto the Herzegovinian capital Mostar as "the only Croat city" in the country. Their ideal is also rooted in the late 19th century notion of Croatianness, but mixed in with the feelings of guilt (due to the Croat role in WWII), and deep frustration with the failure of the Croatian state to absorb the Herzegovinian Croats during the last war.
The Bosniaks might be the most divided and the most embittered. As the last group in the region to emerge as an ethnic category (only in the mid 20th century) they are also the most divided. The right-wing is seething with revanchist urges and wants Republika Srpska destroyed, claiming it is the direct product of the genocide in Srebrenica. Seeing no need for any devolution of power, the Bosniak right-wing wants a unitary Bosnian state with the "one man, one vote" principle that does not recognize the ethnic complexity of the country and the history of violence. The left-wing would agree to some devolution, but still sees Republika Srpska as the main obstacle to a better future. The still fresh, daily narrated memory of the Srebrenica genocide is the unifying force between all the fractions within the Bosniak political establishment.
The problem is that the war did not DEFEAT any of these ideals. All of the ideals are inherently democratic expressions of the majority of the people who vote (and keep voting) for the same parties. Despite criticizing the Communists for giving people utopian promises, all of the nationalist ideals are essentially utopian in that they promise a never-reached future in which the national being will be fulfilled. But these ideals are incompatible with one another, making the daily political life a zero-sum game that has to end either in a stalemate, or another war. So, rather than being conniving self-interested politicians (and they are), these nationalist politicians are also idealists many of whom genuinely believe they are representing "the will of the people." The sense of grievance--that goes back to WWII, if not earlier--and that is powerful within all three ethnic establishments is truly the most dangerous result of the Dayton stalemate.
PRAGMATISM. So, what this country needs is to reject utopian idealism and embrace pragmatism. Pragmatism is the only way we can push ourselves through the stalemate, and create a workable everyday solution. The practical consequence of a pragmatic approach is to look at the country not the way we want it to be (whoever "WE" are), but the way it is, and then come up with the best workable solution, which would entail the following two steps.
1) Stop talking about the war! All the politicians have to agree to separate the memories and narratives of the war from any political solution. This entails a painful acceptance by many that the country is basically ethnically clean in most places. But it would also mean that politicians need to stop using the word genocide. Used as a negotiating card, the memory of the war will always inevitably block any agreement.
2) Offer Republika Srpska the Presidency of Bosnia in return for meaningful, irreversible constitutional changes that would empower the central state. This sounds like the most outrageous claim, but I think it offers a real shot at preserving the state of Bosnia. What is the reason Bosnia fell apart as a state? It is because over 90% of the Bosnian Serbs did not accept its legitimacy and instead organized themselves into what became known as Republika Srpska (the Croat and Bosniak separatist projects were a response to this and came later). So, the Americans and Europeans need to go to Milorad Dodik, the Prime Minister of Republika Srpska and the most powerful politician in the country, and offer him the first mandate as the President of Bosnia if he would accept constitutional changes. Besides pleasing the ego of Mr. Dodik, the offer would also enfranchise millions of Serbs who would have something to identify with at the highest levels of the Bosnian state. It would also alleviate fears of the state's encroachment on Serb interests, the underlying cause of the war in the first place. Further, it would inject Dodik's political capital into the institution. Before accepting the newly created position, Dodik would have to agree to: 1) never again challenge the legitimacy of the Bosnian state; 2) never again to bring up the massacres. In return, the international community would also grant him a lifetime immunity from prosecution for his previous financial crimes (not future ones in case he commits them) in return for his service to the state. The immunity could be revoked in case he reneged on the deal.
Now, I know this is impossible. For this to happen, Bosniak and Croat politicians would have to convince their constituencies that this would be in their interest. They would have to be convinced that this would offer a long-term solution that would create a viable Bosnian state way past Dodik's time. The problem in this country is that there has been too much focus on personalities without looking at the institutions. Dodik will go away sooner or later and it is what he leaves behind that is more important. There is also a possibility that Dodik would not agree, but his ego, his fear of prosecution for his financial crimes, and his desire for more power, would definitely make him think twice before rejecting such an offer. Given that he is undeniably popular with the Serbs this would also boost their view of the state in its abstract. Dodik's nemesis, the leader of the one of the largest Bosniak parties, Haris Silajdzic would be picked as the VP with substantive powers (while at the same time making sure that these could not cause a paralysis of the central government).
For such political experiments to happen, this country needs a politician(s) like Abraham Lincoln. At his Second Inaugural, after some 620,000 American soldiers had lost their lives, entire South laid in ruins, and the North had emerged triumphant, Lincoln said:
"The will of God prevails — In great contests each party claims to act in accordance with the will of God. Both may be, and one must be wrong. God cannot be for, and against the same thing at the same time. In the present civil war it is quite possible that God's purpose is somewhat different from the purpose of either party — and yet the human instrumentalities, working just as they do, are of the best adaptation to effect this."
It is hard to imagine today how shocking these words must have sounded to many in the US. Both, the South and the North having been convinced in the righteousness of their cause must have been disappointed, the former with a military defeat and the latter with its leader's attempt to reconcile both narratives into one. With that speech alone, he did just that.
Bosnia needs an Abraham Lincoln.
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