As our candidate touches down in Israel and the Palestinian territories, it is useful to remember that the only way the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will ever end peacefully is for the US to have a President who will sacrifice the possibility of his second term--even his political career--to pressure Israel into ending the occupation of the Palestinian territories, stopping the settlements on the West Bank, and acknowledging (if only symbolically and financially) the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their pre-1967 borders. Of course, the actual implementation of the latter is an impossibility, but it is essential for the US, Israel and the larger international community to recognize the historical injustice. This in turn would undercut the central message of Hamas--which thrives on the Palestinian sense of victimhood--and help consolidate the Palestinian peace movement.
However, the crazy process we put our candidates through before they reach the White House as well as the amount of historical guilt this country has (justifiably) for the Holocaust, does not bide well for the peace process. Obama's own statements in front of the Israeli lobby in which he supported an "undivided" and Jewish Jerusalem (and later smartly backtracked on) signal the continuation of US' policy of unconditionally supporting Israel no matter what it does, no matter how bluntly it violates international law, no matter how much it continues to oppress the Palestinians, and finally, no matter the extent to which it works against US interests in the Middle East.
Carter was willing to sacrifice his political capital in reaching a peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. But Carter's timing was impeccable. He had two courageous leaders on both sides of the negotiating table: Menachim Begin of Israel and Anwar Sadat with the latter eventually sacrificing his life for peace with Israel.
Thus, timing is not on Obama's side. Both, the Israelis and the Palestinians seem divided, their peace movements never weaker, and their leaders extremely ineffective. It would take an immense amount of boldness, intellectual honesty, and political courage for an Obama administration to throw itself into a genuine peace-process.
The boldness and political confidence we have seen from Obama on this trip gives me some hope, however.
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