The Day of Decision: Predictions and Worries

After more than 4 years of following the remarkable and inspiring ascent of Barack Obama from an eloquent orator at the 2004 Democratic National convention to an almost President-elect of the United States, I am hopeful. I am hopeful that on November 4 America will have changed its face in a matter of hours. We have no idea what kind of president Barack Obama will actually be. But from what we have seen in this campaign we know that we will finally have a president who looks at the world through the prism of his own complicated background. As a result, he is a man inspired not only by raw political ambition, but also by intellectual curiosity. This curiosity and his balanced character can potentially make him into a great president who changes the direction of our country in bold ways. He would be a new face of America in the world: a kinder, a more hopeful face. Without further ado, here are some things to watch out for in the early hours of the election night, followed by predictions by some of the most prominent election pundits.

The early returns will tell us a lot about the outcome. If Indiana is too early too call by 8pm, it might be a very close election. This will mean that the turnout of African-Americans and newly energized Obama voters in Indiana will probably not have tipped this red state into a blue state. If, on the other hand, Indiana is called early for Obama, it will be a landslide. McCain has no chance of catching up. In the same vein, if Virginia is called for Obama by a comfortable margin this means that many rural voters in southwestern Virginia will have gone Obama's way and this might be the trend in other battleground states. If Virginia goes to Obama in a big way, that means the polls have been correct and we can expect the western states of COlorado, Nevada, New Mexico all to go to him putting him way above 300 electoral votes and up to 7% in popular vote. This, indeed, would be a landslide. The most comforting thing to me on the eve of this momentous election is the fact that Obama has multiple paths to victory. For example, Obama can lose both Ohio and Florida if he keeps all Kerry states, gets Iowa (which is he almost certain to do), Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico (281 electoral votes).

The thing that really worries me and makes me nauseous is the number of undecideds in almost all of the battleground states. In this morning's Mason-Dixon poll, in all of the states, Obama is up by a very small margin, but the number of undecideds way outnumber this margin. And guess what? Almost all of the undecideds are white. Some pollsters are convinced that these are whites who are uncomfortable with voting for a black candidate and they are "hiding" in the undecided category. If this is true, the question is: will most of them stay at home, or will they mostly break for McCain. If they break for McCain, we are in for an extremely devastating evening. An evening which will probably require a heavy does of anti-depressants and anxiety medication for months to come.

With this in mind, I turn to pundits who, even though God knows have been wrong, but have been in the business of elections and making predictions for decades. I am outlining their predictions below to comfort us and make us get to Nov.4 without getting an ulcer. The predictions include the electoral number for Obama and the number of seats Democrats are bound to pick up in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

George Will, conservative columnist:
Obama: 378 electoral votes (a huge landslide)
Senate: +7 Democrats
House: +21 Democrats

Matthew Dowd, former Bush pollster-turn Obama supporter:

Obama: 338 electoral votes (7% in popular vote)
Senate: +8 Democrats
House: +17 Democrats

Mark Halperin, Time Magazine writer
Obama: 349
Senate: +7 Democrats
House: +28 Democrats

Donna Braziller, Democratic strategiest
Obama: 343 Obama
Senate: +8 Democrats
House: +29 Democrats

George Stephanapholus, host of "This Week."
Obama: 353
Senate: +7 Democrats
House: +28 Democrats

So, every pundit predicts a landslide for Obama reaching well into the 300s, something unknown for Democrats. Also if Democrats manage to get 9 seats in the Senate, they will have a filibuster-proof majority in the Congress and can pass Obama's legislation with ease and truly change the direction of this country. But I am doubtful if they can achieve this. Watch the Kentucky Senate race: if the very popular Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell loses in Kentucky, it will be a Democratic sweep. This is why early returns from Indiana and Kentucky are so important.

Let this be my last post before the big day. The next post will either be titled: "VICTORY: AMERICA AT ITS BEST," or "AN IRREVOCABLE TRAGEDY."