I think that everyone needs to take a moment, breathe deeply, and chill out. Obama's chances are not ruined, he is not headed towards defeat, and Hillary's supporters will not defect en masse towards McCain. (As a caveat, let me say that I have been guilty of the same pessimism as recently as my post "Worrying about November" below).
First of all, this is exactly the moment when voters (unbelievably enough) start tuning in, and this is why the polls are tight. The polls from way back in June can be tossed out the window because it was mostly hardcore Democratic/Republican activists who were paying attention. Secondly, close elections are a norm rather than an aberration in American politics. This is an extremely diverse country and winning the Presidency is difficult because one has to appeal to different social groups which often have incompatible self-interests. So, Obama is on the right track: he has done a good job of introducing himself to the American people, the Convention will be a wonderful success, and he will top it with an amazing acceptance speech in front of 75,000 people. Biden was the right choice given the political climate, Obama's perceived weaknesses, and the narrative the Obama campaign wants to tell to the American worker.
I don't know what it is (maybe our more thoughtful, academic nature) that makes us liberal Democrats so hesitant about our chances, so prone to pessimism that often degenerates into downright fatalism. The problem is that this mood--once it becomes widespread--turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy. It echoes the cable television news cycle where a day begins with a "pundit" reporting that Hillary's supporters are angry at Obama and throughout the day, the idea is almost literally pounded into people's heads so that by the end of the day, Hillary's supporters really start having problems with voting for Obama.
So, get a beer (or wine), sit back on your couch, and enjoy what it promises to be a wonderful historic Convention. And think to yourself: Obama WILL Win!
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2 comments:
Were you always this optimistic, or is this a post-Bosnia reality?
I have always been an optimistic man. I also think that the Republicans are much much more disciplined when it comes to the party and much better cheer-leaders, which is why they win.
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